Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Summary

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction explores how some individuals consistently outperform others in making accurate predictions about complex world events. Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner draw on research from the Good Judgment Project to highlight the traits and methods that distinguish top 'superforecasters' from amateurs and experts alike. The book delves into the psychology of forecasting, the value of updating beliefs, and the importance of probabilistic thinking, offering practical guidance for anyone aiming to improve their predictive skills.

Life-Changing Lessons

1. Embrace probabilistic thinking: Rather than thinking in certainties, break problems down into probabilities and constantly update your assessments as new information emerges.

2. Cultivate humility and openness: Acknowledge what you don't know, seek diverse viewpoints, and be ready to change your mind when warranted by evidence.

3. Practice and reflection improve judgment: Like any skill, forecasting gets better with deliberate practice, thoughtful feedback, and learning from both successes and failures.

Publishing year and rating

The book was published in: 2015

AI Rating (from 0 to 100): 93

Practical Examples

1. Updating Beliefs After New Information

   Superforecasters consistently revise their estimates when presented with new data. For example, when geopolitical situations change—such as negotiations between nations—the best forecasters don’t stick to their initial predictions but iteratively refine them, boosting accuracy.

2. Breaking Down Complex Questions

   Instead of relying on gut feelings, superforecasters break large questions into smaller, more manageable parts. When predicting whether a country will default on its debt within a year, some superforecasters consider sub-questions like political stability, economic trends, and recent precedents.

3. Utilizing Diverse Information Sources

   Superforecasters use a variety of information sources, from news reports to academic papers, then synthesize this data to form a balanced outlook. One example in the book describes forecasters predicting the fate of Syria by parsing conflicting news stories and triangulating between multiple perspectives.

4. Avoiding Overconfidence

   Rather than expressing absolute certainty, top forecasters assign specific probabilities and publicly track their accuracy. For instance, a forecaster might say there's a 65% chance of a policy change—enabling meaningful self-review and improvement based on outcomes.

5. Team Collaboration

   The book emphasizes that superforecasters often work in teams, challenging each other's assumptions and debating forecasts. This collaborative approach leads to more robust predictions, as illustrated by the Good Judgment Project’s team-based forecasting exercises.

6. Learn from Failure

   Superforecasters carefully analyze their inaccurate predictions, identifying what went wrong. The book gives an example of forecasters reviewing why they missed an important geopolitical turn and using those insights to refine their future approaches.