Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

Summary

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner delves into the science and art of making precise predictions about complex, uncertain events. The book analyzes what sets apart 'superforecasters'—ordinary people who consistently outperform experts and intelligence analysts in forecasting accuracy. Drawing from exhaustive research and real-world examples, Tetlock and Gardner reveal the traits, habits, and thinking styles that make these individuals successful. The book offers actionable insights into improving one’s own forecasting skills, emphasizing probabilistic thinking and humility about one’s knowledge.

Life-Changing Lessons

1. Adopt probabilistic thinking: Instead of seeing events as certain or impossible, learn to think in probabilities and constantly update your assessments as new evidence emerges.

2. Cultivate humility about your knowledge: Superforecasters recognize the limits of their own understanding and remain open to changing their minds.

3. Seek feedback and learn from errors: Systematic analysis of mistakes and successes is crucial for improving prediction capabilities over time.

Publishing year and rating

The book was published in: 2015

AI Rating (from 0 to 100): 92

Practical Examples

1. Updating Probabilities

   Superforecasters regularly revise their predictions as new information becomes available. For example, when forecasting whether a political leader would remain in power, they would assimilate fresh news and statistical data to adjust their probability estimates accordingly. This iterative process is crucial for maintaining prediction accuracy.

2. Breaking Down Complex Questions

   The book describes how superforecasters break down complicated forecasting problems into smaller, manageable components. In geopolitical forecasts, they might consider separate factors like economic conditions, public sentiment, and international pressure, and estimate each one separately before synthesizing an overall prediction.

3. Extensive Use of Base Rates

   Instead of relying solely on gut feeling, superforecasters look for statistical 'base rates'—the frequency with which similar events have occurred in the past. For example, when assessing the likelihood of a coup in a particular country, they begin with how often coups have succeeded in similar circumstances historically.

4. Avoiding Overconfidence

   Superforecasters deliberately calibrate their certainty, resisting the common tendency to express excessive confidence in their predictions. One case involved assigning a 60% probability to a diplomatic event rather than making a binary yes/no forecast, reflecting their uncertainty and keeping their predictions nuanced.

5. Learning from Feedback

   Participants in forecasting tournaments received regular feedback on the accuracy of their forecasts, allowing them to refine their approach over time. For instance, when predictions turned out wrong, superforecasters analyzed why and adjusted their future methods accordingly.

6. Aggregating Diverse Opinions

   Superforecasters improve their accuracy by considering multiple perspectives, often collaborating in teams and using aggregation techniques to combine individual forecasts. This crowdsourced approach led to better results than any single individual could achieve.

7. Avoiding the Inside View

   They resist focusing solely on the details of a single case ('inside view') and instead incorporate broader statistical evidence ('outside view') into their judgments. For example, when forecasting the outcome of an election, they looked at trends across similar elections in comparable countries.