How to Decide by Annie Duke

Summary

'How to Decide' by Annie Duke is a practical guide to improving decision-making by embracing uncertainty and separating outcomes from the quality of decisions. Duke, a former professional poker player, uses evidence-based approaches and exercises to help readers recognize cognitive biases and build better habits of thought. The book emphasizes the power of probabilistic thinking and offers step-by-step frameworks for making choices, whether big or small. Throughout, Duke empowers readers to be more reflective and less reliant on gut feelings, resulting in more rational and strategic decisions.

Life-Changing Lessons

1. Separate process from outcome — focus on making good decisions, not just on getting good results, since luck influences most outcomes.

2. Embrace uncertainty — make decisions by assigning probabilities, rather than relying on black-and-white thinking.

3. Recognize and counteract cognitive biases — by developing awareness of how human judgment errors can distort decision quality.

Publishing year and rating

The book was published in: 2020

AI Rating (from 0 to 100): 88

Practical Examples

1. Resulting and blaming luck

   Duke explains the concept of 'resulting'—judging the quality of a decision by its outcome. For example, if you make a well-considered investment that loses money due to unforeseen market forces, it's a mistake to call it a bad decision. She urges readers to separate process from outcome and value thoughtful decision-making, regardless of the end result.

2. Using backcasting and premortems

   Duke introduces the backcasting and premortem techniques to anticipate possible outcomes. Backcasting involves imagining you've achieved your goal and identifying the steps taken; premortems require you to imagine you've failed and understand what led to it. These strategies help in mapping pitfalls and ensuring plans are robust against uncertainty.

3. Betting on beliefs

   Duke suggests 'betting on beliefs' to evaluate confidence in one's decisions. By framing decisions as bets, you consider the risk and reward more carefully and clarify your level of certainty. This helps you to adopt a probabilistic mindset and avoid overconfidence.

4. Decision trees in daily life

   The book provides guidance on using decision trees to map out choices and possible consequences. This visual framework helps you clarify the factors at play in multi-step decisions, such as changing jobs or choosing a school. By outlining paths and assigning likelihoods, you can make more reasoned, organized choices.

5. Conducting group decision 'huddles'

   Duke recommends group 'huddles' where each participant voices how they would decide, along with their reasoning and uncertainty. This collective process uncovers blind spots and cognitive biases, improving both individual and team decisions. It also fosters open communication and shared learning.

6. Enforcing accountability with decision journals

   She advocates keeping a 'decision journal' to record your reasoning, predictions, and expected outcomes for significant choices. Reviewing the journal later helps diagnose whether your decisions result from sound thinking or chance, and enables reflection and improvement over time.

7. The 'Ugh' Field

   Duke explains how people avoid confronting uncomfortable information—what she calls the 'Ugh' field. For instance, procrastinating on financial decisions because you fear facing poor spending habits. By acknowledging and addressing the discomfort, you can make clearer, more informed decisions.