The Fourth Turning by William Strauss & Neil Howe

Summary

The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe presents a theory that history moves in cycles, each lasting about 80-100 years and divided into four 'turnings': High, Awakening, Unravelling, and Crisis. They argue that generational archetypes shape these periods as society undergoes predictable social, political, and economic transformations. The authors warn that we are entering a 'Fourth Turning', a time of crisis that will redefine America's future. Through historical analysis, they provide patterns to anticipate challenges and opportunities in upcoming decades. The book urges readers and leaders to recognize these cycles for better personal and societal navigation.

Life-Changing Lessons

1. History is cyclical, not linear, and understanding generational patterns can better prepare us for future crises.

2. Each generation has a distinctive character, and harnessing their strengths can help societies emerge stronger from periods of upheaval.

3. Major social transformation often arrives during crisis periods, offering opportunities for reinvention if approached with vision and unity.

Publishing year and rating

The book was published in: 1997

AI Rating (from 0 to 100): 88

Practical Examples

1. The Great Depression and World War II as a Fourth Turning

   Strauss and Howe use the period of the Great Depression and World War II as an example of a Fourth Turning, illustrating how social, political, and economic turmoil leads to profound changes in national identity and institutions. During this time, Americans collectively faced hardship and then came together to forge new systems (e.g., the New Deal, postwar prosperity) that shaped society for decades. The book shows that such crises are painful but also generative, fostering collective action and renewal.

2. The Boomers as the 'Prophet' Generation

   One practical example is how Boomers, described as the 'Prophet' archetype, drive moral awakenings, social movements, and often challenge established norms. In the late 20th century, Boomers led the counterculture, civil rights, and anti-war movements, reshaping American values. The authors contend that recognizing generational traits like these can help leaders anticipate societal shifts.

3. Millennials as the 'Hero' Generation

   Strauss and Howe place the Millennial generation in the 'Hero' archetype, suggesting that, like the G.I. Generation before them, Millennials will be crucial to rebuilding and leading during crisis periods. The book observes their growing sense of civic duty, teamwork, and optimism, forecasting their potential to spearhead social and political renewal during the Fourth Turning. These generational qualities are identified to frame future leadership and social trends.

4. The Unraveling of Institutions in the 1980s and 1990s

   The authors analyze how, during the Unraveling (Third Turning) of the late 20th century, America's institutions lost credibility, and societal divisions increased. Examples include the decline of trust in government post-Watergate, the rise of individualism, and culture wars. Strauss and Howe argue that such periods set the stage for the next Crisis by eroding unity and stoking underlying tensions.

5. Patterns in Previous American Turnings

   Strauss and Howe provide practical historical patterns, citing repeated cycles through American history: the Revolutionary War, Civil War, Great Depression/World War II, each representing a Fourth Turning. They show how each crisis period led to major reordering of society, governance, and values, suggesting that understanding these patterns can help predict and prepare for future upheavals.